Immodest Proposal
For this assignment I plan to research meteorologist and the importance of communication with the public, and the issues that can be associated with that. Meteorologists, especially the ones on TV, are known by many as public figures and when a person is known publically like that there are always certain people that will not be fans and have negative opinions. It is important for a meteorologist to keep a good reputation, and one way of doing that is by providing accurate forecasts that will make people want more. However, the problem is even though meteorologists are very well trained in how to predict weather, humans do not possess the ability to control the weather and sometimes forecasts fall through at the last second. The public is not educated in meteorological processes which results in them getting angry at meteorologists and loosing faith in them if a forecast is not exactly correct. My goal is to research this importance and issue with communication between meteorologists and the public and how that affects the message getting across. I want to research this because it would be neat so see why and how meteorologists keep “control” of a population and gain their trust. Since I plan to become a meteorologist it would good experience to do research on these kinds of issues that I may very well face someday. I follow some TV meteorologists on twitter and I have seen tweets from those weathermen that discuss the issue and communication gap between the meteorologists and the public. This means that these kinds of issues are fairly well known by most meteorologists, which means there are likely many articles, or stories that discuss this weatherman-public communication. I think this project should be approved because since I am already observing a meteorologist I will have access to his opinions and information on the communication importance and issue. This project will better equip me for being meteorology major because I am trying to be as educated as possible. My back up plan is to research how difficult it is to create an accurate weather forecast and the factors that can affect that. Through either topic I will gain valuable insight into the meteorology career, which can prepare me for my future.
For this assignment I plan to research meteorologist and the importance of communication with the public, and the issues that can be associated with that. Meteorologists, especially the ones on TV, are known by many as public figures and when a person is known publically like that there are always certain people that will not be fans and have negative opinions. It is important for a meteorologist to keep a good reputation, and one way of doing that is by providing accurate forecasts that will make people want more. However, the problem is even though meteorologists are very well trained in how to predict weather, humans do not possess the ability to control the weather and sometimes forecasts fall through at the last second. The public is not educated in meteorological processes which results in them getting angry at meteorologists and loosing faith in them if a forecast is not exactly correct. My goal is to research this importance and issue with communication between meteorologists and the public and how that affects the message getting across. I want to research this because it would be neat so see why and how meteorologists keep “control” of a population and gain their trust. Since I plan to become a meteorologist it would good experience to do research on these kinds of issues that I may very well face someday. I follow some TV meteorologists on twitter and I have seen tweets from those weathermen that discuss the issue and communication gap between the meteorologists and the public. This means that these kinds of issues are fairly well known by most meteorologists, which means there are likely many articles, or stories that discuss this weatherman-public communication. I think this project should be approved because since I am already observing a meteorologist I will have access to his opinions and information on the communication importance and issue. This project will better equip me for being meteorology major because I am trying to be as educated as possible. My back up plan is to research how difficult it is to create an accurate weather forecast and the factors that can affect that. Through either topic I will gain valuable insight into the meteorology career, which can prepare me for my future.
Charley Fite
Professor Brown
UWRT 1103
May 4, 2015
Annotated Bibliography:
Communication Issue between Meteorologists and the Public
Pennesi, Karen. "Improving Forecast Communication."Editorial. American Meteorological Society 18 Mar. 2007: n. pag. American Meteorological Society.
This article describes the communication error between meteorologists giving a forecast and how the public interprets that forecast. This article by the American Meteorological Society discusses the importance of using the right words to convey to the public what they actually mean in their forecast. Interpretations of the forecast are influenced by expectations and the perceived relevance of particular elements of the forecast. Grammar, pronunciation, and language are key elements.
Morrs, Rebecca, and Julie Demuth. "Communicating Uncertainty in Weather Forecasts: A Survey of the U.S. Public." AMS Journal. American Meteorological Society, Oct. 2008. Web.
This article discusses the importance of communicating the uncertainty of weather forecasts to the public. The public assume that when a statement is made on air, that it must be exactly the weather that is seen that given day. However, weather can always change and meteorologists are working on figuring out how to convey their degree of uncertainty to viewers.
Olson, Randy. "Accuracy of Three Major Weather Forecasting Services." Randal Olson, 21 Jan. 2014. Web
This article examines three major weather info sources and their reliability on forecasts. The three services are The Weather Channel, TV Meteorologists, and the National Weather Service. For the observed frequency of rain the TV Meteorologists tend to have the most accurate forecasts. This can be due to the fact that they receive their weather data from the National Weather Service and then tweak the data after examining their own opinions and info that they have collected.
Dubner, Stephen. "How Valid Are T.V. Weather Forecasts?" Freakonomics. © 2011 Freakonomics, LLC, 21 Apr. 2010. Web.
This article discusses how valid TV weather forecasts actually are. It turns out that most meteorologists at weather stations are hired for their presentation skills and not especially their reputation for accuracy in forecasting. The public cares about accuracy but they assume they are supposed to believe whichever forecast they see.
Fite, Charley. Practicum Day-Book Observations on Ricky Matthews.
This source is from my own personal observations on Ricky Matthews, and senior meteorology major at UNCC. Ricky discussed multiple times how difficult it is to maintain a twitter account for the school because of all the people that have opinions about forecast accuracy that they direct towards that social media account. Ricky made the comparison that keeping control of that account is like watching little kids.
"Interview with Todd Krause, Warning Coordination Meteorologist: Part Two." YouTube. Minnesota-Forecaster, 23 Apr. 2012. Web.
This is a video interview where a man is interviewing a TV Meteorologist about forecast accuracy. The meteorologist discussed how people interpret severe weather warning signals. There are people that still do not know the difference between a tornado watch and a tornado warning. It is an issue that meteorologists hope to fix in the future and work on teaching the public.
Endicott, Ashley. "You Can’t Control the Weather but You Can Always Set Your Sails." ThisIBelieve.org. This I Believe, 6 Dec. 2010. Web.
This essay is not completely on topic to forecast accuracy, however it does discuss the matter that despite whatever bad weather may be happening on a certain day that people should still be thankful and enjoy their day to day life. Weather is something no one can control. Even if a forecast is interpreted wrongly and does not turn out as expected, people should still be thankful for the person that tried to forecast for them.
Panovich, Brad. "Perspective on the Accuracy of Meteorologists." Wxcrad.com. Brad Panovich-blog, 19 May 2014. Web.
This source is a blog by Brad Panovich, a very well respected meteorologist in Charlotte, NC. Brad discusses how people get upset when he has a busted forecast and how people assume weathermen are always wrong. Brad brought up the point that meteorologists are accurate 94% of the time and that people see one bad forecast an create this stereotype about all weathermen. Brad also stated that people never create a stereotype about doctors who are not always correct at what they do. This can be applied to many professions but meteorologists are the ones that get blamed for it since the entire public depends on them. Professionals do their best to be correct but nature can always change in the blink of an eye; that goes for meteorologists and doctors.
Harris, William. "Why Can't Scientists Accurately Predict the Weather?" HowStuffWorks. How Stuff Works, 7 July 2010. Web.
This article discusses how the stereotype for meteorologists being incorrect should not exist. Meteorologists have improved their weather predicting abilities outrageously in the past 20 years. Dozens of complicated mathematical equations are used to predict the weather and networks of computers all over the world work together to calculate these equations and help make a forecast. Meteorologists must take into consideration several large-scale phenomena, each of which is governed by multiple variables and factors, all to create a simple forecast.
Silver, Nate. "The Weatherman Is Not a Moron." Nytimes.com. The New York Times, 7 Sept. 2012. Web.
Expert meteorologists are forced to arbitrage a torrent of information to make their predictions as accurate as possible. After receiving weather forecasts generated by supercomputers, they interpret and go over them by, among other things, comparing them with various conflicting models or what their colleagues are seeing in the field or what they already know about certain weather patterns. People assume meteorologists don’t have to try very hard at their jobs, but they do a lot of work and have to deal with an immense amount of responsibility.
REFLECTION
My annotated bibliography’s topic was to discuss the perception the public has on meteorologists, their accuracy on forecasting, and how well they communicate information. The public is used to hearing weatherman make statements about the weather on TV and they assume that the forecast must be correct, 100%. However, that is not always the case. Meteorologists are working on stressing to the public how forecasts should be interpreted, and it is an ongoing issue.
Part of my bibliography consisted of articles that explained the importance of meteorologist’s communication skills. The way a meteorologist phrases a sentence, the grammar he uses, and the way he stresses the forecast will determine how the people watching from the TV or online will expect the forecast to turn out. The percent chance of rain makes people plan their day around that number that the weatherman gave them so if there is or is not any rain that day people do get very upset. People may cancel a party because of a 40% chance of rain and then get angry when it does not rain at all. They forget to take into consideration that the forecast also implies that there is a 60% chance of it not raining. Because of misconceptions such as that, Meteorologists work to the best of their abilities to explain to their audiences that forecasts may change if the forecast is 3 to 10 days away. Because meteorologists are such public figures, they get most of the blame for incorrect forecasts even though they are right over 90% of the time. Supercomputers are networking to gather data from all over the world to create a forecast and since nature can be so unpredictable it is not surprising that forecasts don’t turn out as expected. There is a saying “A butterfly in Europe may flap its wings and then the next day your birthday party gets rained out.” That statement is just a comparison saying that small things can change the weather and because of that meteorologists should not be as reprimanded as they are when their forecasts may bust.
I have enjoyed doing this assignment because I learned that this Weather forecasting inaccuracy and communication errors are bigger issues than I thought. I learned that this is a bigger problem that meteorologists struggle with everyday. Even the Ricky Matthews, who I observed, described how it is difficult to be a public figure because there is always criticism when weather does not play out a certain way. My view on this meteorological issue has not changed or been altered, but I have expanded my mind to see the issue from a bigger perspective. It is an ongoing issue that will likely never be completely eradicated, but the best meteorologists can do now is to try to convey to the public how accurate they believe their forecast to be, and look forward to the future of technological advancement where weather forecast will be even more accurate. Weather is always changing, and so is the field of meteorology.
Professor Brown
UWRT 1103
May 4, 2015
Annotated Bibliography:
Communication Issue between Meteorologists and the Public
Pennesi, Karen. "Improving Forecast Communication."Editorial. American Meteorological Society 18 Mar. 2007: n. pag. American Meteorological Society.
This article describes the communication error between meteorologists giving a forecast and how the public interprets that forecast. This article by the American Meteorological Society discusses the importance of using the right words to convey to the public what they actually mean in their forecast. Interpretations of the forecast are influenced by expectations and the perceived relevance of particular elements of the forecast. Grammar, pronunciation, and language are key elements.
Morrs, Rebecca, and Julie Demuth. "Communicating Uncertainty in Weather Forecasts: A Survey of the U.S. Public." AMS Journal. American Meteorological Society, Oct. 2008. Web.
This article discusses the importance of communicating the uncertainty of weather forecasts to the public. The public assume that when a statement is made on air, that it must be exactly the weather that is seen that given day. However, weather can always change and meteorologists are working on figuring out how to convey their degree of uncertainty to viewers.
Olson, Randy. "Accuracy of Three Major Weather Forecasting Services." Randal Olson, 21 Jan. 2014. Web
This article examines three major weather info sources and their reliability on forecasts. The three services are The Weather Channel, TV Meteorologists, and the National Weather Service. For the observed frequency of rain the TV Meteorologists tend to have the most accurate forecasts. This can be due to the fact that they receive their weather data from the National Weather Service and then tweak the data after examining their own opinions and info that they have collected.
Dubner, Stephen. "How Valid Are T.V. Weather Forecasts?" Freakonomics. © 2011 Freakonomics, LLC, 21 Apr. 2010. Web.
This article discusses how valid TV weather forecasts actually are. It turns out that most meteorologists at weather stations are hired for their presentation skills and not especially their reputation for accuracy in forecasting. The public cares about accuracy but they assume they are supposed to believe whichever forecast they see.
Fite, Charley. Practicum Day-Book Observations on Ricky Matthews.
This source is from my own personal observations on Ricky Matthews, and senior meteorology major at UNCC. Ricky discussed multiple times how difficult it is to maintain a twitter account for the school because of all the people that have opinions about forecast accuracy that they direct towards that social media account. Ricky made the comparison that keeping control of that account is like watching little kids.
"Interview with Todd Krause, Warning Coordination Meteorologist: Part Two." YouTube. Minnesota-Forecaster, 23 Apr. 2012. Web.
This is a video interview where a man is interviewing a TV Meteorologist about forecast accuracy. The meteorologist discussed how people interpret severe weather warning signals. There are people that still do not know the difference between a tornado watch and a tornado warning. It is an issue that meteorologists hope to fix in the future and work on teaching the public.
Endicott, Ashley. "You Can’t Control the Weather but You Can Always Set Your Sails." ThisIBelieve.org. This I Believe, 6 Dec. 2010. Web.
This essay is not completely on topic to forecast accuracy, however it does discuss the matter that despite whatever bad weather may be happening on a certain day that people should still be thankful and enjoy their day to day life. Weather is something no one can control. Even if a forecast is interpreted wrongly and does not turn out as expected, people should still be thankful for the person that tried to forecast for them.
Panovich, Brad. "Perspective on the Accuracy of Meteorologists." Wxcrad.com. Brad Panovich-blog, 19 May 2014. Web.
This source is a blog by Brad Panovich, a very well respected meteorologist in Charlotte, NC. Brad discusses how people get upset when he has a busted forecast and how people assume weathermen are always wrong. Brad brought up the point that meteorologists are accurate 94% of the time and that people see one bad forecast an create this stereotype about all weathermen. Brad also stated that people never create a stereotype about doctors who are not always correct at what they do. This can be applied to many professions but meteorologists are the ones that get blamed for it since the entire public depends on them. Professionals do their best to be correct but nature can always change in the blink of an eye; that goes for meteorologists and doctors.
Harris, William. "Why Can't Scientists Accurately Predict the Weather?" HowStuffWorks. How Stuff Works, 7 July 2010. Web.
This article discusses how the stereotype for meteorologists being incorrect should not exist. Meteorologists have improved their weather predicting abilities outrageously in the past 20 years. Dozens of complicated mathematical equations are used to predict the weather and networks of computers all over the world work together to calculate these equations and help make a forecast. Meteorologists must take into consideration several large-scale phenomena, each of which is governed by multiple variables and factors, all to create a simple forecast.
Silver, Nate. "The Weatherman Is Not a Moron." Nytimes.com. The New York Times, 7 Sept. 2012. Web.
Expert meteorologists are forced to arbitrage a torrent of information to make their predictions as accurate as possible. After receiving weather forecasts generated by supercomputers, they interpret and go over them by, among other things, comparing them with various conflicting models or what their colleagues are seeing in the field or what they already know about certain weather patterns. People assume meteorologists don’t have to try very hard at their jobs, but they do a lot of work and have to deal with an immense amount of responsibility.
REFLECTION
My annotated bibliography’s topic was to discuss the perception the public has on meteorologists, their accuracy on forecasting, and how well they communicate information. The public is used to hearing weatherman make statements about the weather on TV and they assume that the forecast must be correct, 100%. However, that is not always the case. Meteorologists are working on stressing to the public how forecasts should be interpreted, and it is an ongoing issue.
Part of my bibliography consisted of articles that explained the importance of meteorologist’s communication skills. The way a meteorologist phrases a sentence, the grammar he uses, and the way he stresses the forecast will determine how the people watching from the TV or online will expect the forecast to turn out. The percent chance of rain makes people plan their day around that number that the weatherman gave them so if there is or is not any rain that day people do get very upset. People may cancel a party because of a 40% chance of rain and then get angry when it does not rain at all. They forget to take into consideration that the forecast also implies that there is a 60% chance of it not raining. Because of misconceptions such as that, Meteorologists work to the best of their abilities to explain to their audiences that forecasts may change if the forecast is 3 to 10 days away. Because meteorologists are such public figures, they get most of the blame for incorrect forecasts even though they are right over 90% of the time. Supercomputers are networking to gather data from all over the world to create a forecast and since nature can be so unpredictable it is not surprising that forecasts don’t turn out as expected. There is a saying “A butterfly in Europe may flap its wings and then the next day your birthday party gets rained out.” That statement is just a comparison saying that small things can change the weather and because of that meteorologists should not be as reprimanded as they are when their forecasts may bust.
I have enjoyed doing this assignment because I learned that this Weather forecasting inaccuracy and communication errors are bigger issues than I thought. I learned that this is a bigger problem that meteorologists struggle with everyday. Even the Ricky Matthews, who I observed, described how it is difficult to be a public figure because there is always criticism when weather does not play out a certain way. My view on this meteorological issue has not changed or been altered, but I have expanded my mind to see the issue from a bigger perspective. It is an ongoing issue that will likely never be completely eradicated, but the best meteorologists can do now is to try to convey to the public how accurate they believe their forecast to be, and look forward to the future of technological advancement where weather forecast will be even more accurate. Weather is always changing, and so is the field of meteorology.